Saturday, November 10, 2012

The Limits to Growth

The Limits to Growth
Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, William W. Behrens III

Wikipedia: The Limits to Growth is a 1972 book about the computer modeling of unchecked economic and population growth with finite resource supplies.[1] It was commissioned by the Club of Rome and was first presented at the 3. St. Gallen Symposium. Its authors were Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. The book used the World3 model to simulate[2] the consequence of interactions between the Earth's and human systems. The book echoes some of the concerns and predictions of Thomas Malthus in An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798).

The Club of Rome: 40 years 'Limits to Growth'

Limits to Growth is a study about the future of our planet. On behalf of the Club of Rome, Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and their team worked on systems analysis at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT. They created a computing model which took into account the relations between various global developments and produced computer simulations for alternative scenarios. Part of the modelling were different amounts of possibly available resources, different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control or environmental protection.  12 million copies were distributed in 37 languages.

Most scenarios resulted in an ongoing growth of population and of the economy until to a turning point around 2030. Only drastic measures for environmental protection proved to be suitable to change this systems behaviour, and only under these circumstances, scenarios could be calculated in which both world population and wealth could remain at a constant level. However, so far the necessary political measures were not taken.

Amazon: The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind [Paperback—1974]

Amazon: Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future [Paperback—1993]

Twenty years after their influential book, The Limits to Growth, was published to worldwide acclaim, the authors revise several scenarios of growth, concluding that the global industrial system has already overshot some of the Earth's vital ecological limits.

Amazon: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update [Paperback—2004]

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