A dissolução da geringonça

Em Lisboa, como será?

As novas companhias aéras de bandeira, italiana e portuguesa (para haver justiça em Bruxelas), ficarão com 30% da força de trabalho das companhias extintas ou a extinguir. 

Assim, no caso da Alitalia, eram 10.500, na ITA ficam apenas 2.800. Por sua vez na TAP, havia 8.106 trabalhadores no fim de 2020, na companhia que suceder à TAP haverá apenas 2432 trabalhadores, para que não se diga que há filhos e enteados entre os PIGS da UE. Ou seja, falta despedir mais 4.372 'colaboradores' da TAP...

A Alitalia/ITA viu a sua frota reduzir-se de 122 para 52 aeronaves, ou seja, menos de metade. Porque será diferente em Portugal? A empresa que apanhar os cacos da TAP não poderá, provavelmente, contar com mais de 42% da frota atual (TAP 103 + PGA 13), ou seja, 49 aeronaves.

Como observaram dois colaboradores do António Maria, o PCP e o Bloco jamais poderão apoiar um Governo que tivesse que encerrar a TAP e criar uma nova empresa, como aconteceu em Itália. O Bloco e o PCP querem sair o mais depressa possível desta situação, antes da decisão final da DG COMP, para iniciarem um novo ciclo de greves e manifestações, culpando já o PS e a Direita de todo o mal que possa ocorrer. 

O PS de Costa não pode ir tão longe quanto o aventureiro oportunista Pedro Nuno Santos gostaria. No entanto, se António Costa for a votos, e perder as próximas eleições, é certo e sabido que o PS será tomado de assalto por PNS. E que o PS se transformará rapidamente numa caldeirada de esquerda populista radical, numa conjuntura em que o BE poderá reduzir-se a uma espécie de CDS da Esquerda, e o PCP continuará a valer-se, sobretudo, da sua força sindical para sobreviver.

Mas os problemas que levaram a Geringonça à auto-dissolução não se esgotam na TAP, em todo o caso, a nódoa mais evidente e escandalosa da frente popular ensaiada e falhada. 

Há mais: 

— o buraco negro financeiro em que estamos, cortesia do Bloco Central, mas que a gestão danosa 'socialista' agravou desmesuradamente; 

— a destruição da sustentabilidade energética do país pelo assalto furioso aos nossos recursos e infra-estruturas (mais um crime do Bloco Central); 

— ou ainda, a transformação do país numa ilha ferroviária, para mais, obsoleta.

Como se isto não fosse suficiente para comprometer a aliança oportunista entre PS, PCP e Bloco, a emigração continua, por alto, na casa das 100 mil pessoas ano, parte das quais (as mais qualificadas) já não volta.

E na saúde, seja pela instabilidade crescente dos seus sistemas e sub-sistemas, seja por efeito de uma pandemia que promete durar, as dores de cabeça continuam.

Tudo pesado, percebe-se bem o que levou António Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos, Jerónimo de Sousa e Francisco Louçã a combinarem uma crise política com o único objetivo de decretar o óbito da Geringonça, e forçar o PR convocar eleições, mantendo até lá o governo em funções de gestão.

Chama-se a isto empurrar os problemas com a barriga. Até às eleições regressará a algazarra das esplanadas da Esquerda, todos estarão contra a situação, e a culpa regressará aos malvados da Direita. Há neste cálculo um contra-tempo. Chama-se Chega!, ou antes, chama-se crise de regime.

A floresta é mais ou menos esta :(

Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

Posted on October 18, 2021, by Gail Tverberg

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

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[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

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[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

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[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

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[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

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[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

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The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

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[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

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Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

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[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

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[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

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[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

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The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

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Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports. [mais ainda Portugal!]

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The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

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I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/10/18/spike-in-energy-prices-suggests-that-sharp-changes-are-ahead/