A dissolução da geringonça

Em Lisboa, como será?

As novas companhias aéras de bandeira, italiana e portuguesa (para haver justiça em Bruxelas), ficarão com 30% da força de trabalho das companhias extintas ou a extinguir. 

Assim, no caso da Alitalia, eram 10.500, na ITA ficam apenas 2.800. Por sua vez na TAP, havia 8.106 trabalhadores no fim de 2020, na companhia que suceder à TAP haverá apenas 2432 trabalhadores, para que não se diga que há filhos e enteados entre os PIGS da UE. Ou seja, falta despedir mais 4.372 'colaboradores' da TAP...

A Alitalia/ITA viu a sua frota reduzir-se de 122 para 52 aeronaves, ou seja, menos de metade. Porque será diferente em Portugal? A empresa que apanhar os cacos da TAP não poderá, provavelmente, contar com mais de 42% da frota atual (TAP 103 + PGA 13), ou seja, 49 aeronaves.

Como observaram dois colaboradores do António Maria, o PCP e o Bloco jamais poderão apoiar um Governo que tivesse que encerrar a TAP e criar uma nova empresa, como aconteceu em Itália. O Bloco e o PCP querem sair o mais depressa possível desta situação, antes da decisão final da DG COMP, para iniciarem um novo ciclo de greves e manifestações, culpando já o PS e a Direita de todo o mal que possa ocorrer. 

O PS de Costa não pode ir tão longe quanto o aventureiro oportunista Pedro Nuno Santos gostaria. No entanto, se António Costa for a votos, e perder as próximas eleições, é certo e sabido que o PS será tomado de assalto por PNS. E que o PS se transformará rapidamente numa caldeirada de esquerda populista radical, numa conjuntura em que o BE poderá reduzir-se a uma espécie de CDS da Esquerda, e o PCP continuará a valer-se, sobretudo, da sua força sindical para sobreviver.

Mas os problemas que levaram a Geringonça à auto-dissolução não se esgotam na TAP, em todo o caso, a nódoa mais evidente e escandalosa da frente popular ensaiada e falhada. 

Há mais: 

— o buraco negro financeiro em que estamos, cortesia do Bloco Central, mas que a gestão danosa 'socialista' agravou desmesuradamente; 

— a destruição da sustentabilidade energética do país pelo assalto furioso aos nossos recursos e infra-estruturas (mais um crime do Bloco Central); 

— ou ainda, a transformação do país numa ilha ferroviária, para mais, obsoleta.

Como se isto não fosse suficiente para comprometer a aliança oportunista entre PS, PCP e Bloco, a emigração continua, por alto, na casa das 100 mil pessoas ano, parte das quais (as mais qualificadas) já não volta.

E na saúde, seja pela instabilidade crescente dos seus sistemas e sub-sistemas, seja por efeito de uma pandemia que promete durar, as dores de cabeça continuam.

Tudo pesado, percebe-se bem o que levou António Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos, Jerónimo de Sousa e Francisco Louçã a combinarem uma crise política com o único objetivo de decretar o óbito da Geringonça, e forçar o PR convocar eleições, mantendo até lá o governo em funções de gestão.

Chama-se a isto empurrar os problemas com a barriga. Até às eleições regressará a algazarra das esplanadas da Esquerda, todos estarão contra a situação, e a culpa regressará aos malvados da Direita. Há neste cálculo um contra-tempo. Chama-se Chega!, ou antes, chama-se crise de regime.

A floresta é mais ou menos esta :(

Spike in energy prices suggests that sharp changes are ahead

Posted on October 18, 2021, by Gail Tverberg

An analysis of what is going terribly wrong in the world economy

The energy price spike that is being experienced today is a warning that something is very, very wrong. As I see the situation, the trend toward complexity has gone too far; the economic system is starting to break down. Sharp changes appear to be ahead. The world economy is shifting into contraction mode, with more and more parts of the system failing.

...

[1] If energy supplies are inexpensive and widely available, it is easy to build an economy.

...

[2] Once energy supplies become constrained, energy prices tend to spike. In the early stages of these price spikes, adding complexity allows the economy to better tolerate higher energy costs.

...

[3] There are limits to added complexity. In fact, complexity limits are what are likely to make the economic system fail.

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[4] An increasing amount of complexity has been added since 1981 to help compensate for rising oil and other energy prices.

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[5] Economists and analysts of many types put together models that give misleading results because they missed several important points.

... 

The models of economists are mostly wrong. The use of carbon pricing and intermittent renewables will simply disadvantage the countries adopting them.

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[6] At this point, ramping up fossil fuel production would be very difficult because of the long-term low prices for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the economy cannot get along with only today’s small quantity of renewables.

...

Most people don’t realize just how slowly renewables have been ramping up as a share of world energy supplies. For 2020, wind and solar together amounted to only 5% of world energy supplies and hydroelectric amounted to 7% of world energy supplies. The world economy cannot function on 12% (or perhaps 20%, if more items are included) of its current energy supply any more than a person’s body can function on 12% or 20% of its current calorie intake.

...

[7] Every plant and animal and, in fact, every growing thing, needs to win the battle against intermittency.

...

[8] Any modeling of the cost of energy needs to take into account the full system needed to “bridge the intermittency gap.”

...

[9] Major changes for the worse seem to be ahead for the world economy.

...

The recent spikes in prices are highly unlikely to produce the natural gas, coal and oil that is required. They are more likely to cause recession. Fossil fuel suppliers need high prices guaranteed for the long term. Even if such guarantees could be provided, it would still take several years to ramp up production to the level needed.

The general trend of the economy is likely to be in the direction of the Seneca Cliff (Figure 1). Everything won’t collapse all at once, but big “chunks” may start breaking away.

...

Importers of fossil fuels seem likely to be especially affected by price spikes because exporters have the ability to cut back in the quantity available for export, if total supply is inadequate. Europe is one part of the world that is especially dependent on oil, natural gas and coal imports. [mais ainda Portugal!]

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The combined production of hydroelectric, wind and solar and biofuels (in Figure 9) amounts to only 19% of Europe’s total energy consumption (shown in Figure 8). There is no possible way that Europe can get along only with renewable energy, at any foreseeable time in the future.

European economists should have told European citizens, “There is no way you can get along using renewables alone for many, many years. Treat the countries that are exporting fossil fuels to you very well. Sign long term contracts with them. If they want to use a new pipeline, raise no objection. Your bargaining power is very low.” Instead, European economists talked about saving the planet from carbon dioxide. It is an interesting idea, but the sad truth is that if Europe takes itself out of the contest for energy imports, it mostly leaves more fossil fuels for exporters to sell to others.

...

I could continue speculating on the changes ahead. The basic problem, as I see it, is that we have reached limits on oil, coal and natural gas extraction, pretty much simultaneously. The limits are really complexity limits. The renewables that we have today aren’t able to save us, regardless of what the models of Mark Jacobson and others might say.

In the next few years, I am afraid that we will find out how collapse actually proceeds in a very interconnected world economy.

https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/10/18/spike-in-energy-prices-suggests-that-sharp-changes-are-ahead/

Gaël Giraud, du CNRS : « Le vrai rôle de l’énergie va obliger les économistes à changer de dogme »

Croissance mondiale de l'économie, de la consommation d'énergie et de pétrole.

19 avril 2014, par Matthieu Auzanneau

Contrairement à ce qui est écrit dans tous les manuels d'économie, l'énergie (et non le capital, sans elle inerte) se révèle être LE facteur essentiel de la croissance, selon Gaël Giraud, 44 ans, directeur de recherche au CNRS et jésuite. Economistes, perpétuez-vous depuis deux siècles la même bourde fatidique ?

Quels sont d'après vous les indices d'un lien intime entre consommation d'énergie et croissance de l'économie ?

Depuis deux siècles, depuis les travaux d'Adam Smith et de David Ricardo par exemple, la plupart des économistes expliquent que l'accumulation du capital est le secret de la croissance économique inédite que connaissent les sociétés occidentales, puis une partie du reste du monde. Marx était, lui aussi, convaincu de cette apparente évidence. Or, historiquement, l'accumulation du capital (au sens moderne) n'a pas commencé au 18ème siècle avec le début de la révolution industrielle, mais au moins deux cents ans plus tôt. Inversement, la première “révolution marchande” des 12ème et 13ème siècles, qui permit à l'Europe de sortir de la féodalité rurale, coïncide avec la généralisation des moulins à eau et à vent. Une nouvelle source énergétique, en plus de la photosynthèse (agriculture) et de la force animale, devenait disponible. De même, qui peut nier que la découverte des applications industrielles du charbon, puis du gaz et du pétrole (et, plus récemment, de l'atome) a joué un rôle décisif dans la révolution industrielle, et partant, comme moteur de la croissance ? De 1945 à 1975, les “trente glorieuses” ont été une période de croissance accélérée et aussi de consommation inédite d'hydrocarbures. Depuis lors, la planète n'a jamais retrouvé la vitesse de consommation d'énergies fossiles qui fut la sienne après guerre. C'est une bonne nouvelle pour le climat. Mais cela n'est pas étranger au fait que nous n'avons jamais retrouvé non plus les taux de croissance du PIB des trente glorieuses.

+
http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2014/04/19/gael-giraud-du-cnrs-le-vrai-role-de-lenergie-va-obliger-les-economistes-a-changer-de-dogme/

Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse

Figure 6. Figure by Steve Kopits of Westwood Douglas showing trends in world oil exploration and production costs per barrel. CAGR is “Compound Annual Growth Rate.”

by Gail Tverberg
Posted on July 22, 2015   

Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, the question comes back to, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?” If workers were getting rich enough to buy new homes and cars, demand for these products would be raising the prices of commodities used to build and operate cars, including the price of oil. If governments were rich enough to build an increasing number of roads and more public housing, there would be demand for the commodities used to build roads and public housing.

It looks to me as though we are heading into a deflationary depression, because the prices of commodities are falling below the cost of extraction. We need rapidly rising wages and debt if commodity prices are to rise back to 2011 levels or higher. This isn’t happening. Instead, Janet Yellen is talking about raising interest rates later this year, and  we are seeing commodity prices fall further and further. Let me explain some pieces of what is happening.

Read more @ Our Finite World.

A new theory of energy and the economy

By Gail Tverberg
Posted on January 21, 2015


– Part 1 – Generating economic growth

[...]

What if oil prices are artificially low, on a temporary basis? The catch is that not all costs of oil producing companies can be paid at such low prices. Perhaps the cost of operating oil fields still in existence will be fine, and the day-to-day expenses of extracting Middle Eastern oil can be covered. The parts of the chain that get squeezed first seem to be least essential on a day to day basis–taxes to governments, funds for new exploration, funds for debt repayments, and funds for dividends to policyholders.

Unfortunately, we cannot run the oil business on such a partial system. Businesses need to cover both their direct and indirect costs. Low oil prices create a system ready to crash, as oil production drops and the ability to leverage human labor with cheaper sources of energy decreases. Raising oil prices back to the full required level is likely to be a problem in the future, because oil companies require debt to finance new oil production. (This new production is required to offset declines in existing fields.) With low oil prices–or even with highly variable oil prices–the amount that can be borrowed drops and interest costs rise. This combination makes new investment impossible.

If the rising cost of energy products, due to diminishing returns, tends to eliminate economic growth, how do we work around the problem? In order to produce economic growth, it is necessary to produce goods in such a way that goods become cheaper and cheaper over time, relative to wages. Clearly this has not been happening recently.

The temptation businesses face in trying to produce this effect is to eliminate workers completely–just automate the process. This doesn’t work, because it is workers who need to be able to buy the products. Governments need to become huge, to manage transfer payments to all of the unemployed workers. And who will pay all of these taxes?

The popular answer to our diminishing returns problem is more efficiency, but efficiency rarely adds more than 1% to 2% to economic growth. We have been working hard on efficiency in recent years, but overall economic growth results have not been very good in the US, Europe, and Japan.


Read more at Our Finite World.
Part 2
Part 3

Daze of Peak Oil…or at least Peak Oil Production

2014, Oct 15
By Chris Hamilton

Production of crude oil has nearly stalled despite a near quadrupling in the price since ’01 and it seems likely the world has entered the Peak Oil phase and the governments nor central banks (try as they may) can paper this over. Without the growing supply of adequate cheap energy, there isn’t adequate GDP growth, and without the GDP growth, there is no way to outgrow, pay off, or service the huge debts incurred but by interest rate suppression. The dual occurrence of peak oil with ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) is a truly unfortunate state of affairs. But whether or not they happened in tandem, both were inevitable. Still, governments and central banks are attempting to maintain the pre-peak oil system and avoid the pain of free market corrections to supply, production, and price. It is in this light that the centralization and “intervention” of stock, bond, and real estate markets and the manipulation of commodities growing in scale and frequency since ‘09 should not be shocking. Free markets are the enemy of fraud, the punisher of bad fiscal and economic behavior and thus free markets will not be allowed to facilitate true price discovery (i.e., REALITY).

The story of energy, particularly cheap and plentiful crude oil, has been the foundation of rapid economic global growth since WWII. The Global story of crude oil is integral to understanding the world of 2014. Crude oil matters so much because there is no readily available replacement for its energy and chemical uses and any likely eventual replacement will be at significantly higher costs. Ever higher costs of energy are negatively impacting GDP growth the world over and absent GDP growth there is no way to service or grow our way out from the great debts that have been incurred.

[...]




In 2010, the hole left behind by fracking was only $18 billion. During each of the last three years (’11-’13), the gap was over $100 billion/yr. This is the chart of an industry with apparently steep and permanent negative free cash-flows: This is the huge problem with Fracking shale oil and gas.  Due to the extremely high annual decline rates of the typical shale oil or gas well, companies must continue to spend a great deal of capital expenditures to replace what was lost.  It’s known as the DRILLING TREADMILL…. once you start, you can’t get off.

In one year the top 127 oil and gas companies spent $110 billion more on capital expenditures than they received from operations.  So, they acquired $106 billion in additional debt (a large percentage through the Junk Bond Market) and sold assets to make up the difference.

This is not a sustainable business model, just like the same nonsense taking place in the broader stock markets as corporations buy back massive amounts of their stock to give the ILLUSION that everything is fine and BAU- Business As Usual will continue.

Not only are many of these oil and gas companies hiding the fact that their balance sheets are hemorrhaging debt, they also have a cozy situation with the Federal Government.  Basically, the Fed’s allowed them to defer more than half of their tax bill… and it’s a lot of money. In a nutshell, the top 20 oil and gas companies still owe $16.5 billion (more than 50%) to Uncle Sam in tax revenue.

See more at: Biderman's Money Blog

Mark Anthony debunks the oil/gas fracking rush

Financial State Of The Natural Gas Industry

It puzzles me how the US NG industry manage to fund development of shale gas for these years, if the adventure is deeply unprofitable?

The True Economy Of Bakken Shale Oil

I have written repeatedly on SA to warn people that the shale oil and gas developers tend to use unreliable production models to project unrealistically high EURs (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) of their shale wells. They then use the over-estimated EURs to under-calculate the amortization costs of the capital spending, in order to report "profits", despite of the fact that they have to keep borrowing more money to keep drilling new wells, and that capital spending routinely out pace revenue stream by several times.

When the capital costs are fairly amortized, most shale oil and gas development projects are deeply non-profitable. Even the Bakken shale oil, regarded as the most profitable shale play under current pricing environment, is not profitable. Let me use real data from Whiting Petroleum (WLL), the second largest Bakken shale oil developer, to demonstrate the real economy in Bakken shale.

Mark Anthony's instablog

Peeking at Peak Oil

Peeking at Peak Oil
Kjell Aleklett

Amazon: Peeking at Peak Oil, 2012 [hardcover]

The term “Peak Oil” was born in January 2001 when Colin Campbell formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO). Now, Peak Oil is used thousands of times a  day by journalists, politicians, industry leaders, economists, scientists and countless others around the globe. Peak Oil is not the end of oil but it tells us the end is in sight. Anyone interested in food production, economic growth, climate change or global security needs to understand this new reality. In Peeking at Peak Oil Professor Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International and head of the world’s leading research group on Peak Oil, describes the decade-long journey of Peak Oil from extremist fringe theory to today’s accepted fact: Global oil production is entering terminal decline. He explains everything you need to know about Peak Oil and its world-changing consequences from an insider’s perspective. In simple steps, Kjell tells us how oil is formed, discovered and produced. He uses science to reveal the errors and deceit of national and international oil authorities, companies and governments  too terrified to admit the truth. He describes his personal involvement in the intrigues of the past decade. What happens when a handful of giant oil fields containing two thirds of our planet’s oil become depleted? Will major oil consumers such as the EU and US face rationing within a decade? Will oil producing nations conserve their own oil when they realize that no one can export oil to them in the future? Does Peak Oil mean Peak Economic Growth? If you want to know the real story about energy today and what the future has in store, then you need to be “Peeking at Peak Oil”.

Very Important Work September 1, 2012
By keith renick
Format:Hardcover|Amazon Verified Purchase

This book, Peeking at Peak Oil is a very important work. This work is based on science. It's sound in it's findings. Again, it's science that's based on very sound research methods. It's not pie-in-the sky or doomsday is here. It's sound scientific research that can't be overlooked. Looking at the facts, readers can draw their own conclusions as to how peak oil will play out. Peak Oil is real and it has arrived. Peak Oil is most often misunderstood by economists and the general public. Modern economics is flawed because it never had a reason it include net energy in it's economic models of growth. Economist are obsessed with total labor productivity. The world is consuming more and more energy and getting less and less growth, less bang for their buck. Along with "Peak Oil" we will have water problems as many places that produce oil will require huge amounts of water for water injection to get the remaining oil out of the ground. What's never addressed is the growing car and light truck population of the earth. When my granddaddy Crump was born in 1889 there were maybe 3 cars in the USA. When I was born there was less than 70 million cars in the USA. Today, there are over 250,000,000 cars and light trucks in the USA and growing. Today the global car and light truck population more than 800 million and racing to a billion worldwide. At some point, it doesn't matter how much oil is in the ground or how many miles per gallon your car gets. What matters will be the total number of cars and light trucks in the world, all of them, more than a billion, wanting their gas tanks topped off. But the average person doesn't want to hear that there are limits. Tap water and gasoline will always be there in abundance and will always be affordable. Many believe everyone who can afford a car should have one and the earth can support one billion cars, one and a half billion cars, 2 billion cars or more. The total number of cars and light trucks in the world has never crossed their minds. How can it be expected that China and India will stop making cars? They won't and the demand for oil will overtake production forever. At some point, the question might not be how much oil is left in the world but rather how are we going to use the oil that is left? Only about 2 thirds of a barrel of oil is used to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. This is the term "peak oil" refers to most often is that it's a liquid fuel transportation problem. This statement is true. However, I am very concerned about the remaining one third that's used in manufacturing thousands of products that we use everyday. Now we call everything oil. Heavy sour, tar and NGL. I was very honored several years ago when Dr. Colin Campbell emailed me some of his field-by-field estimates for Saudi Arabia. I believe the author of this book and Dr. Colin Campbell are the 2 most informed experts on the subject of "peak oil." The quality of their research is unquestionable. While I do not share the authors belief that we can feed a future world of 9 billion people, the authors knowledge and effort that went into "Peeking at Peak OIl," is truly remarkable. Keith Renick, Saudi Aramco Oil Retired

The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire

The History Of The Decline And Fall Of The Roman Empire
Edward Gibbon

Complete HTML edition

The History Guide

The Enlightenment found many of its virtues ready-made in the world of ancient Rome: economic abundance, and international political structure and a common language for many people. Of course, the greatness of Rome also led to its eventual collapse and fall, and this singular fact has exercised the mind of the historian ever since. Gibbon was perhaps the first to make such a sustained investigation of this kind of event. The following selection is from Chapter XXXVIII: General Observations on the Fall of the Roman Empire in the West. A brief list of resources follows the excerpt.

Wikipedia: The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire

Intellectus journal of the Hong Kong Institute of Economic Science: Edward Gibbon, Historian of the Roman Empire [Part I]; [Part II]
by Eugene Y. C. Ho, Hong Kong

What led first to Rome's decline and ultimately to her fall? Gibbon discovers many causes, which he discusses in various parts of his work. For instance, the long period of peace and the uniform government of the Romans gradually extinguished the industry and creativeness of the people, as well as the military discipline and valour of the soldiers (Chs. 2 and 7); the indulgence in luxury, which originally remained confined to the nobles and residents of the Imperial Court, was later extended to the troops, totally corrupting their morals (Ch. 17); the enrolment of mercenary barbarians in the armies, which served to excuse the Roman themselves from military responsibilities, at the same time encouraged the barbarians within the Empire to grow in power and influence (Ch. 17); the multiplication of oppressive taxes was countered and evaded by the rich, who shifted the burden to the poor, who in turn also dodged them and fled to the woods and mountains to become Rome's rebels and robbers (Ch. 35).

Notwithstanding the importance of these many contributing causes, Gibbon considers another two to be the most important and decisive: (1) the invasion of the barbarians, and (2) the growth of Christianity within the Empire. "I have described the triumph of barbarism and religion," he writes in the concluding chapter of his History. Every student of ancient Roman history would be familiar with the foreign enemies of the Roman Empire, most of whom were barbarians: the Goths, Lombards, Vandals, Alemannis, Huns, Persians, Turks, etc. As they had invaded Rome at one time or another, it is easy to appreciate their respective role in her fall. However, it is less easy to understand the role Christianity played as an accomplice. How was it possible that a religion whose humble founder preached love and peace and who later found himself gruesomely nailed to a cross contributed to Rome's collapse? Let us analyze this position of Gibbon in more detail.

In Gibbon's view, Christianity made for the decline and fall of Rome by sapping the faith of the people in the official (pagan) religion, thereby undermining the state which that religion supported and blessed. To be sure, Gibbon is not blind to the fact that other cults and sects within the Empire were also competing with one another in their attempt to attract believers. As he admits, "Rome, the capital of a great monarchy, was incessantly filled with subjects and strangers from every part of the world, who all introduced and enjoyed the favourite superstitions of their native country" (Ibid., Ch. 2). However, Christianity was to be distinguished from the other flourishing sects in its claim to exclusivity, or in other words, in its claim that it alone held the key to "Truth" and to Heaven, and that all its competitors were vicious and damned. Moreover, as the early Christians believed in the imminent end of this world, they all put their thoughts in the "next" world. This other-worldly attitude proved most disastrous to the Empire during the barbarian invasions, since the Christians, instead of bearing arms to serve the state and the public good, diverted men from useful employments and encouraged them to concentrate on heavenly and private salvation. Needless to say, Gibbon's anti-Christian position aroused the fury of his Christian contemporaries.

The City of God

The City og God [De Civitate Dei contra Paganos]

Agustine of Hippo

Wikipedia: De Civitate Dei, (full title: De Civitate Dei contra Paganos), translated in English as The City of God, is a book of Christian philosophy written in Latin by Augustine of Hippo in the early 5th century AD. It is one of Augustine's major works, standing alongside his The Confessions, On Christian Doctrine, and On the Trinity. Augustine is considered the most influential Father of the Church in Western Christianity, and The City of God profoundly shaped Western civilization.

Amazon: City of God (Perguin Classics)
Augustine of Hippo

St. Augustine, bishop of Hippo, is one of the central figures in the history of Christianity, and City of God is one of his greatest theological works. Written as an eloquent defence of the faith at a time when the Roman Empire was on the brink of collapse, it examines the ancient pagan religions of Rome, the arguments of the Greek philosophers and the revelations of the Bible. Pointing the way forward to a citizenship that transcends worldly politics and will last for eternity, City of God represents a dramatic turning point in the unfolding of Christian doctrine.

The new introduction by Gill Evans examines the text in the light of contemporary Greek and Roman thought and political change. It demonstrates the importance of religious and literary influences on St. Augustine and his significance as a Christian thinker.

Wikipédia: A Cidade de Deus, de Agostinho de Hipona

De Civitate Dei (A Cidade de Deus) é obra de Santo Agostinho, onde descreve o mundo, dividido entre o dos homens (o mundo terreno) e o dos céus (o mundo espiritual). Teria sido a obra preferida pelo imperador Carlos Magno.

Uma das criações mais representativas do gênero humano. A propósito da filosofia ou teologia da História, trata dos mais variados e complexos assuntos que sempre apaixonaram e torturaram o espírito humano: da origem e substancialidade do bem e do mal, do pecado, das culpa e da morte, do direito, da lei e das penas, do tempo e do espaço, da contingência e da necessidade, da Providência, da ação humana e do destino no desenvolvimento da História: do ser, do conhecer e do agir do homem, de Deus, da natureza e do espírito, da temporalidade, do eterno, da perenidade e dos ciclos cósmicos, da profecia e do mistério como argumento apologético, da pessoa, da cidade e da comunidade humana.

A Cidade de Deus (PDF em português)
Santo Agostinho

The End of Growth

The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality
Richard Heinberg

Richard Heinberg’s latest landmark work goes to the heart of the ongoing financial crisis, explaining how and why it occurred, and what we must do to avert the worst potential outcomes. Written in an engaging, highly readable style, The End of Growth describes what policymakers, communities, and families can do to build a new economy that operates within Earth’s budget of energy and resources. We can thrive during the transition if we set goals that promote human and environmental well-being, rather than continuing to pursue the now-unattainable prize of ever-expanding GDP.

Amazon: The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality [2011, Paperback]

Review
Why have mainstream economists ignored environmental limits for so long? If Heinberg is right, they will have much explaining to do." -- LESTER BROWN, Founder Earth Policy Institute  --Lester Brown - Earth Policy Institute

Heinberg shows how peak oil, peak water, peak food, etc. lead not only to the end of growth, but to the beginning of a new era of progress without growth. --Herman E. Daly, Professor Emeritus, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland

By the time you finish this, you will have 2 conclusions: This is the end of economic growth and it is our problem, not our childrens'. It's time to get ready. This book is the place to start. --Paul Gilding - Former head of Greenpeace International

Richard has rung the bell on the limits to growth. Our shift from quantity of consumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation. Frightening...but ultimately freeing. --John Fullerton - President and Founder, Capital Institute

Nobody should be elected to federal office who has not  read Richard Heinberg's The End of Growth. - William Catton, author of Overshoot.

Back Space, Richar Heinberg website

The Revenge of Gaia

The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate Crisis & The Fate of Humanity
James Lovelock

From Booklist — British geophysicist Lovelock introduced the Gaia theory in the early 1970s, envisioning the biosphere as "an active, adaptive control system able to maintain the earth in homeostasis." Since then, Lovelock has expanded the Gaia concept to embrace "physical, chemical, biological, and human components," recognizing that organisms do change the environment, none more radically than humanity. Lovelock now describes Gaia as fighting for its very existence as a rapidly increasing human population threatens to upset the precise balance of forces the make the earth conducive to life. Lovelock looks beyond biodiversity (see E. O. Wilson's The Creation, p.19) to elucidate the functions of the polar ice caps, Amazon rain forests, and ocean currents, and then explains the causes and consequences of global warming. This is solid science, a practice Lovelock seems to abandon in his strangely irresponsible arguments for nuclear energy and against sustainable energy sources (see Helen Caldicott, p.15). In spite of its flaws, Lovelock's tough-minded presentation is a valuable contribution to the urgent debate over humankind's future. Donna Seaman
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Amazon: The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate Crisis & The Fate of Humanity [Paperback, 2007]

The key insight of Gaia Theory is that the entire Earth functions as a single living super-organism. But according to James Lovelock, the theory’s originator, that organism is now sick. It is running a fever born of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. Earth will adjust to these stresses, but the human race faces a severe test. It is already too late, Lovelock says, to prevent the global climate from “flipping” into an entirely new equilibrium that will threaten civilization as we know it. But we can do much to save humanity. In the tradition of Silent Spring, this is a call to address a major threat to our collective future.

Second Chance

Second Chance: Three Presidents And The Crisis Of American Superpower
Zbigniew Brzezinski

Foreign Affairs: Brzezinski's latest book is a passionate polemic arguing that U.S. foreign policy since 1989 has been deeply flawed. According to Second Chance, the errors and misjudgments of the current Bush administration, although significantly more egregious and damaging than those of its immediate predecessors, proceed at least in part from some common assumptions about the United States' world role following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Brzezinski's ability to see that the problems did not start with the current Bush administration gives his analysis depth and credibility; his critiques of all three post-Cold War administrations score telling points. Yet despite it all, Brzezinski remains optimistic. There are no real alternatives to U.S. world leadership, and most major countries agree that the world still needs a stabilizing leader. That so cogent and frank a critic should find so much latent strength in the United States' international position is a remarkable and perhaps encouraging sign. In any case, Brzezinski's reputation will be further enhanced by yet another lively, sweeping, and learned tour d'horizon of a troubled world.
Reviewed by Walter Russel Mead
May/June 2007

Amazon: Second Chance: Three Presidents And The Crisis Of American Superpower [2007]

Sets the Stage for our Second Chance in '08! March 16, 2007
By Loyd E. Eskildson HALL OF FAME
Format:Hardcover

Brzezinski is incomparably qualified to explain and comment on foreign affairs in the last two decades, given his high-level academic and experiential backgrounds, and numerous current contacts. "Second Chance" begins by pointing out that the U.S., having emerged from the Cold War as the unquestioned victor, enjoyed an unprecedented degree of international dominance. Unfortunately, the subsequent three presidents squandered a great deal of its power and prestige - especially Bush II. Brzezinski's intent is to lay out all the problems in the hope that America does better when it gets a second chance after the '08 elections.

Before getting into the details, however, Brzezinski also points out that the collapse of the Soviet was NOT the work of a single person (Ronald Reagan), but the consequence of a 40-year bipartisan effort, beginning with Harry Truman, and also aided by Lech Walesa (defied communism for a decade and compelled compromises that ended communist monopoly on power and precipitated uprisings in Czechoslovakia and Hungary), Pope John Paul II (revived spiritual viability), and Mikhail Gorbachev.

Bush I, according to Brzezinski, did a good (B) job overall - his main achievements were dealing positively with Gorbachev and the U.S.S.R.'s collapse, and then building an impressive coalition to handle Hussein. His two criticisms are that Bush could have done more to resolve the Israeli-Palestine rift (though he did forcefully confront Israel's push to expand settlements), and that Bush I left the Iraq problem unresolved.

Clinton, according to "Second Chance" worked well to move former USSR warheads back into the new Russia, preventing proliferation. However, he did not effectively confront North Korea's efforts to build a bomb, and ultimately failed with Pakistan as well (ignored the fact that India's possession put enormous political pressure on Pakistan). As for the Israeli-Palestine conflict, Clinton's bringing the two parties together was a good step, though Rabin failed to renounce continued settlements; the second effort (Barak and Arafat) also failed, with even Barak's foreign minister noting that he would have rejected the offer as "too vague." Perhaps success would have been attained with more time - part of the problem was that Gore did not want pressure put on the Israeli's near his election campaign.) Another Clinton strength, per Brzezinski, was his bringing the U.S. government to surpluses, generating an even greater impression of world power. Overall, Clinton is rated as a "C" in foreign policy.

Bush II, however, is spared no scorn in "Second Chance," and rates an "F." Until '03 the world was accustomed to believing the word of the U.S. president. Our moral standing also suffered via Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo (without high level accountability), and the brutality of counterinsurgency efforts in the midst of hostile civilians. Our failure to decisively prevail further lowered America's esteem, and further helped unite our enemies and creates more terrorists. Resources diverted from the terrorist threat have led to a resurgence in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Pakistan. Taking Iraq out of the picture has also strengthened Iran; our bias towards Israel has increased - further acerbating a major issue within the Muslim world. Meanwhile, Russia and China, with their new economic strength (oil and manufactured goods, respectively), and lacking the constant mentoring and admonishments of the U.S., are becoming stronger and more involved throughout the world. Disrespectful treatment of China's President Hu during his D.C. visit (no state dinner, allowing hecklers outside the Blair House to continue late into the night, playing the Taiwanese anthem by mistake), as well as supporting more nuclear weapons for its neighgor India were also cited as mistakes by the author. Finally, Brzezinski believes our summary rejection of the International Court (even pressing to exempt U.S. personnel from local courts) and the Kyoto proposal also lowered our esteem.

The world is no longer automatically America's to lead, and by 2050 only 15% of the total population will be in North America and Europe. Hopefully, after the 2008 election we begin to regain our influence.

An excellent overview!

Aside: Brzezinski likes to use the word "Manichean." I had to look it up - means presenting or viewing things in "black and white" fashion.

Seeds of Destruction

Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Agenda of Genetic Manipulation
F. William Engdahl

Amazon: Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Agenda of Genetic Manipulation [2007]


This skillfully researched book focuses on how a small socio-political American elite seeks to establish its control over the very basis of human survival, the provision of our daily bread. Control the food and you control the people. This is no ordinary book about the perils of GMO. Engdahl takes the reader inside the corridors of power, into the backrooms of the science labs, behind closed doors in the corporate boardrooms. The author reveals a World of profit-driven political intrigue, government corruption and coercion, where genetic manipulation and the patenting of life forms are used to gain worldwide control over food production. The book is an eye-opener, a must-read for all those committed to the causes of social justice and World peace.

A Century of War

A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order
F. William Engdahl

Amazon: A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order [1992, 2004, 2012]

This Book is a Gripping Account of the Murky World of the Anglo-American Oil Industry and its Hidden Role in World Politics. -- William Engdahl takes the reader through the history of how seven giant oil companies - five American and two British - developed a controlling grip on the world's economy unprecedented in history. This is no ordinary history of oil. It is a history of global politics, more precisely of global geopolitics - how control of strategic geographical pivot regions first British and later American interests to control in large part the world economy. -- The book sheds light for the first time on such events as the 1973 oil shock - a sudden 400% rise in the price of the world's most essential commodity in a matter of weeks. What William Engdahl reveals, with flawless documentation, will shock most people. The implications are even more devastating. He also documents how oil played an essential role in the ultimate collapse of the Soviet Union, in the rise and fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan, in the US occupation of Iraq and countless other events not normally understood in such a light.

 F. William Engdahl website

The Long Emergency

The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century
James Howard Kunstler

Amazon: The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century 

The indictment of suburbia and the car culture that the author presented in The Geography of Nowhere turns apocalyptic in this vigorous, if overwrought, jeremiad. Kunstler notes signs that global oil production has peaked and will soon dwindle, and argues in an eye-opening, although not entirely convincing, analysis that alternative energy sources cannot fill the gap, especially in transportation. The result will be a Dark Age in which "the center does not hold" and "all bets are off about civilization's future." Absent cheap oil, auto-dependent suburbs and big cities will collapse, along with industry and mechanized agriculture; serfdom and horse-drawn carts will stage a comeback; hunger will cause massive "die-back"; otherwise "impotent" governments will engineer "designer viruses" to cull the surplus population; and Asian pirates will plunder California. Kunstler takes a grim satisfaction in this prospect, which promises to settle his many grudges against modernity. A "dazed and crippled America," he hopes, will regroup around walkable, human-scale towns; organic local economies of small farmers and tradesmen will replace an alienating corporate globalism; strong bonds of social solidarity will be reforged; and our heedless, childish culture of consumerism will be forced to grow up. Kunstler's critique of contemporary society is caustic and scintillating as usual, but his prognostications strain credibility. (May)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

James Howard Kinstler website 

The Great Wave

The Great Wave, Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History
David Hackett Fischer

Oxford University Press: Records of prices are more abundant than any other quantifiable data, and span the entire range of history, from tables of medieval grain prices to the overabundance of modern statistics. Fischer studies this wealth of data, creating a narrative that encompasses all of Western culture. He describes four waves of price revolutions, each beginning in a period of equilibrium: the High Middle Ages, the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and finally the Victorian Age. Each revolution is marked by continuing inflation, a widening gap between rich and poor, increasing instability, and finally a crisis at the crest of the wave that is characterized by demographic contraction, social and political upheaval, and economic collapse. The most violent of these climaxes was the catastrophic fourteenth century, in which war, famine, and the Black Death devastated the continent--the only time in Europe's history that the population actually declined.

Fischer also brilliantly illuminates how these long economic waves are closely intertwined with social and political events, affecting the very mindset of the people caught in them. The long periods of equilibrium are marked by cultural and intellectual movements--such as the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the Victorian Age-- based on a belief in order and harmony and in the triumph of progress and reason. By contrast, the years of price revolution created a melancholy culture of despair.

Fischer suggests that we are living now in the last stages of a price revolution that has been building since the turn of the century. The destabilizing price surges and declines and the diminished expectations the United States has suffered in recent years--and the famines and wars of other areas of the globe--are typical of the crest of a price revolution. He does not attempt to predict what will happen, noting that "uncertainty about the future is an inexorable fact of our condition." Rather, he ends with a brilliant analysis of where we might go from here and what our choices are now. This book is essential reading for anyone concerned about the state of the world today. 

Amazon: The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History [Paperback—1999]

The End of Work

The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era
Jeremy Rifkin

Wikipedia: In 1995, Rifkin contended that worldwide unemployment would increase as information technology eliminated tens of millions of jobs in the manufacturing, agricultural and service sectors. He predicted devastating impact of automation on blue-collar, retail and wholesale employees. While a small elite of corporate managers and knowledge workers would reap the benefits of the high-tech world economy, the American middle class would continue to shrink and the workplace become ever more stressful.

As the market economy and public sector decline, Rifkin predicted the growth of a third sector—voluntary and community-based service organizations—that would create new jobs with government support to rebuild decaying neighborhoods and provide social services. To finance this enterprise, he advocated scaling down the military budget, enacting a value added tax on nonessential goods and services and redirecting federal and state funds to provide a "social wage" in lieu of welfare payments to third-sector workers.

Amazon: The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era [Paperback—1996, 2004]

An analysis of the potentially catastrophic implications of the growing worldwide unemployment crisis explains how we can avoid economic collapse, create conditions for a new more humane social order, and redefine the role of the individual in the new society. Reprint.

Silent Spring

Silent Spring
Rachel Carson

Wikipedia: Silent Spring is a book written by Rachel Carson and published by Houghton Mifflin on September 27, 1962. The book is widely credited with helping launch the contemporary American environmental movement.

The New Yorker started serializing Silent Spring in June 1962, and it was published in book form (with illustrations by Lois and Louis Darling) by Houghton Mifflin on Sept. 27. When the book Silent Spring was published, Rachel Carson was already a well-known writer on natural history, but had not previously been a social critic. The book was widely read—especially after its selection by the Book-of-the-Month Club and the New York Times best-seller list—and inspired widespread public concerns with pesticides and pollution of the environment. Silent Spring facilitated the ban of the pesticide DDT in 1972 in the United States.

The book documented detrimental effects of pesticides on the environment, particularly on birds. Carson accused the chemical industry of spreading disinformation, and public officials of accepting industry claims uncritically.

Amazon: Silent Spring [Paperback—2002]

Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring was first published in three serialized excerpts in the New Yorker in June of 1962. The book appeared in September of that year and the outcry that followed its publication forced the banning of DDT and spurred revolutionary changes in the laws affecting our air, land, and water. Carson’s passionate concern for the future of our planet reverberated powerfully throughout the world, and her eloquent book was instrumental in launching the environmental movement. It is without question one of the landmark books of the twentieth century.

In 2012 we invite you to join us in celebrating the 50th anniversary of the publication of this great work.

The Limits to Growth

The Limits to Growth
Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, William W. Behrens III

Wikipedia: The Limits to Growth is a 1972 book about the computer modeling of unchecked economic and population growth with finite resource supplies.[1] It was commissioned by the Club of Rome and was first presented at the 3. St. Gallen Symposium. Its authors were Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III. The book used the World3 model to simulate[2] the consequence of interactions between the Earth's and human systems. The book echoes some of the concerns and predictions of Thomas Malthus in An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798).

The Club of Rome: 40 years 'Limits to Growth'

Limits to Growth is a study about the future of our planet. On behalf of the Club of Rome, Donnella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers and their team worked on systems analysis at Jay W. Forrester’s institute at MIT. They created a computing model which took into account the relations between various global developments and produced computer simulations for alternative scenarios. Part of the modelling were different amounts of possibly available resources, different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control or environmental protection.  12 million copies were distributed in 37 languages.

Most scenarios resulted in an ongoing growth of population and of the economy until to a turning point around 2030. Only drastic measures for environmental protection proved to be suitable to change this systems behaviour, and only under these circumstances, scenarios could be calculated in which both world population and wealth could remain at a constant level. However, so far the necessary political measures were not taken.

Amazon: The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind [Paperback—1974]

Amazon: Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future [Paperback—1993]

Twenty years after their influential book, The Limits to Growth, was published to worldwide acclaim, the authors revise several scenarios of growth, concluding that the global industrial system has already overshot some of the Earth's vital ecological limits.

Amazon: Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update [Paperback—2004]